“Facebooked” as a verb has been around forever in internet time, referring to the practice of HR professions seeking information on people as part of their hiring due diligence. It’s starting to take on a new meaning for marketing types.  Blogger Jeremiah Owyang was tipped off to a new console game release called Prototype by Chris Pan of Facebook. The Protoype game’s website goes beyond personalization by linking ads with in-game content, or allowing users to upload their pictures to create e-postcards as JibJab does. Prototype’s website asks users to log in using their Facebook credentials, and uses profile photos and other Facebook profile information to create a trailer customized for the viewer.

Below is my experience with the Prototype site, which I encourage you to try yourself here.

What was fascinating from the beginning is how minimal the initial investment in time is. Simply log into Facebook and the website does the rest. No photo uploads, no questionairres..

Once you log in, the loading sequence begins. It takes a while, but it’s worth the wait…

Once The sequence began, a movie-like clip began playing…

Now I’ve read some of the other blogs covering Prototype, so I expected to see my own Facebook data. Imagine my surprise when a picture of my 4 month old son came up (the original here) ..

and of course I showed up as well. It’s hard not to be drawn into the experience when you see yourself in it…

It’s a bit hard to see because of the masking, so here’s the original photo

The information doesn’t simply include my own picture uploads, but also uploads from friends’ photo albums (which I haven’t posted here for obvious reasons). The video also incorporates profile information.  Funny enough watching the video made me realize I needed to update my home location on Facebook.

Anyway, here are my key takeaways from the experience:

  • Asking for logins will become commonplace. Using existing Facebook requires minimal time investment, cutting abandonment.
  • Viral is the new norm. These After the personalized experience, users are likely to invite friends to watch (or even *ahem* blog about the experience) if invited to. Protoype asks you to share the website with your friends at the end of the playback.
  • Marketers will increasingly bundle the extended network. The marketing message is powerful if you bundle it with the user’s data, but even more powerful when you include photos, videos, and profile information from connections (friends). I found myself running the video a couple of times to see if other friends would show up. They did.
  • Expect Orwellian / Big Brother argument to pick up as personalized viral marketing beomces more commonplace. there will probably be plenty of initial freak outs, but objections will become less commonplace as contextual ads become more commonplace.
  • Cross-network advertising is still a question mark. If meta logins (OpenID) pick up steam, expect a number of contextual marketing campaigns to ask for a meta ID and include content from a number of social networks. Someone will probably try to combine Facebook, Flickr, Twitter, and other networks rolled into one spot in the not too distant future.
  • Someone’s political campaign will probably follow suit, rolling out videos which pull at the heartstrings using your own data. An appeal asking for support for health care reform is more powerful if superimposed on pictures of family members, but I suspect most users will be far more wary of providing a politician’s website with Facebook credentials. Game sites are far more innocuous.

Click the picture for a larger (readable) version..

Defying the curfew

Defying the curfew

Earlier blog posts about “Twitterquakes” and other media travelling at speeds greater than media coverage were an entertaining curiosity. Today that curiosity became an agent of change in the disputed Iranian elections as large numbers coordinate, communicate and corroborate via microblogs.

Within 2 hours of the polls closing in the Iranian election, the “supreme leader” Ayatollah Khamenei rushed to bless President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for winning the election, calling on Iranians to line up behind the incumbent. That’s when the questions began to erupt on the microblogs and mobile phones. How could the challengers lose by such an overwhelming percentage in their home cities? How do you count almost 40 million handwritten paper ballots in two hours and declare a winner? Why shut off mobile phone networks if the election was truly transparent? The iron clerics have a bit of a problem: while they control military, the judiciary and all public broadcasts, the supreme leader would find it difficult to shut down all leaks in an age of proxy servers, satellites, and microblogs. They also have a bit of a problem in that they can’t turn off the country’s collective ability to sniff out obvious bullshit.

Ayastoleit

It was via Twitter that the written 7 point statement leaflet distributed among the protesters in Tehran today reached the west:

1. Dismissal of Khamenei for not being a fair leader
2. Dismissal of Ahmadinejad for his illegal acts
3. Temporary appointment of Ayatollah Montazeri as the Supreme Leader
4. Recognition of Mousavi as the President
5. Forming the Cabinet by Mousavi to prepare for revising the Constitution
6. unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners
7. Dissolution of all organs of repression, public or secret

Indeed candidate MirHossein Mousavi has also joined the microblog fray, directing protesters to remain peaceful and determined. The candidate, taking part in the demonstrations himself, has become aware of Twitter’s power to spread messaging helping protesters assemble and avoid altercations with law enforcement. He (or the person managing his Twitter handle) posted a desperate plea to the Twitter team to postpone a scheduled maintenance cycle in order to keep information flowing freely in the face of mobile phone outages:

Don't Turn the Lights off

If you’re wondering, maintenance was rescheduled as requested. Such is the power of the Twitter News Network. Once an early warning system for seismic activity and random flashmobs of no importance, microblogs (and Twitter in particular) have become the message network to turn to when other means of communication are turned off.

Update 5.16.2009 4:26 PM PST: Boing boing’s Corey Doctorow published an engagement guide located here.

Epilogue: the following are a list of active tweeters I’ve been able to find in Teharan. If you’d like to be added to the list, please reply in comments below to add yourself to the list. Best wishes and be safe.

Kamyar
madyar
Amin Abbaspour
Abdul-Azim Mohammed
Farhad
Parham Doustdar
Mohammad Ramezanpour
crash
Sajjad A. Mohammed
Yashar Khazdouzian
Mohamadreza
S T
Iran Election 2009
TehranBureau.com
MirHossein Mousavi
jim sciutto
Raymond Jahan
Parastoo
Bahador Nooraei B.
William Yong
Bahram K
Alireza
persiankiwi
Hamed
Alireza Sedaghat
ali khalaj
miriam
Jubin Ahdi
jadi
IranPhishi
Naeim Karimi
zahrahb

From Jess and Brian Solis, a fairly comprehensive map of the Twitter ecosystem, broken down into applications focusing on geolocation, stream management, trends analysis, marketing & advertising, influence & resonance, search, stream management, relationship management, event management, URL management, and mobile apps (a subset of stream management in my opinion). Click on the picture below to see an expanded version.

Courtesy of Brian Solis and Jeff3

Courtesy of Brian Solis and Jeff3

President Obama’s director of new media released the following video guide to new media and social media services offered by the White House. Here’s the slick guide to interacting with the White House and executive branch offices via social media:

China commemorates the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen massacre with another crackdown.. this time on Twitter, Flickr, Bing (Microsoft’s new Google competitor), and a number of other cites no doubt deemed to carry “unharmonious” speech. Apparently some email sites, such as Hotmail have also been shut off. It seems Microsoft can’t catch a break here outside of MSN messenger, which still seems to be working as of the time this blog post was posted. By evening, residents of some cities in the southern province of Guangdong reported that television stations from neighboring Hong Kong had also been blocked.

The block was first picked up by Alice on the Danwei blog and has been carried by others. Users in Beijing reported accessing the service without difficulty earlier on Tuesday, and even successfully searching potentially sensitive words such as “Tiananmen.” My own experience suggests it may have been blocked a few hours ago, since family of mine living in China we not able to access pictures on Flickr. The large scale crackdown represents the first widespread censorship of social media outlets in China, unlike previous blocks of websites before major events like Tiananmen anniversary dates.

Warning: Flickr Image Above May Lead to Political Unrest

Warning: Flickr Image Above May Lead to Political Unrest

The takeaway here was best described by Dave Flumenbaum at the Huffingtonpost, who writes the move is..”a tacit acknowledgment of two things: Twitter’s new power in mainland China, and how valuable Twitter would be as platform to publish original news out of mainland China on the Tiananmen anniversary.” It remains to be seem whether access will be restored after the Tiananmen anniversary, but it’s a fair bet the net nannies might be playing this by ear. My own hunch is that if the locals don’t raise a stink about it, the block is likely to be permanent.

The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” – Sun Tzu

It’s fitting that here on U.S. Memorial Day (for those outside the U.S. – a holiday commemorating the military service of current and past soldiers) to write about ending authoritarianism tied to petroleum without the loss of our military men and women. It’s hard to deny that our current military adventures in Iraq are at least in part due to the country’s vast energy reserves.  But it need not be that our young men and women come home in caskets draped in the American flag. It need not be that we send hundreds of billions of dollars of wealth overseas each day for energy. There’s a better way to loosen the authoritarian grip of petrodictators. We don’t have to fire a single shot to ruin them.

We simply bankrupt them.

We’ve done it before.. to the Soviet Union specifically. Actually, the British did. The Soviets collapse had little to do with President Ronald Regan’s impassioned “tear down the wall speech” nor did it have to do with the Soviet military adventures in Afghanistan (although the latter was certainly a contributing factor). Instead, the Soviets adopted a model whereby oil revenues were used to subsidize the consumption of is poorest citizens. The policy worked for a while until Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher came into power in the U.K. in 1979. The impact of her decisions to privatize the petroleum rich North Sea lead to a flurry of activity, which turned Britain into a major energy exporter. When the western democracies began to buy from Britain, and not from the Soviet Union, the Soviet revenue machine collapsed, and with it the social policies which kept social stability. What happened next was too predictable: the Soviet currency plummeted in value, the country pulled out of Afghanistan because of functional bankruptcy, and the media began to report on Soviets hauling barrels of rubbles to the local baker to buy a loaf of bread.

Hugo’s Folley

If this sounds all too familiar to anyone in Venezuela, that’s because President Hugo Chavez has implemented the exact same policies. The Chavista policies are likely to hold ground in an inflationary market for petroleum products, but would similarly collapse social security payments to the country’s poorest. You won’t hear that on Aló Presidente.

There’s already substantial evidence that his plan to buy his way to social stability with petrodollars is unwinding quickly. Until recently, the Venezuelan government was encouraging private investment in oil services. then on May 8th, Hugo Chavez changed the law to make the entire industry the ward of the state. The National Guard promptly began to occupy dozens of drilling rigs, docks and boats operated by private contractors, both local and foreign, hired by PDVSA, the state oil company. PDVSA next issues a press release on queue citing that the oil-services firms did not cut their prices when the oil price plummeted last year.

The real reason behind the nationalization is evident one you begin to scour PDVSA’s accounting ledger. Despite years of record oil revenues, PDVSA accumulated liabilities of almost $70 billion by last September, up from less than $30 billion in 2006, according to the company’s financial reports. The company is itself owed more than $24 billion, mostly by Cuba and other neighbours to whom Mr Chávez supplies oil on easy terms. Included in the $70 billion in liabilities are $14 billion in short term liabilities owed to contractors, according to a report to the National Assembly. The same contractors who were just nationalized.

In other words: Venezuela ran out of cash, so Chavez decided to nationalize his creditors in a fit of panic.

The Economist writes that PDVSA’s decline stems in part from the fact that Mr Chávez has turned what was an efficient oil company into an all-purpose vehicle for implementing “21st-century socialism”. PDVSA, whose workforce has more than doubled since 2003, now builds houses, imports food, runs farms and pays for adult-education projects.

Ay Chihuahua.

By the Numbers

Of course to bankrupt petrodictatorships, we would first need to employ enough renewable energy resources to drop the demand for petroleum products below the break even point at which petrodictatorships. Fortunately, the IMF has already done the math based on OPEC meeting minutes. What follows here is a listing of the Dollars per barrel prices needed in 2008 to float the petroleum country’s spending. An oil price over that amount means the country is runnign a surplus relative to social spending. An oil price under means the country is running a deficit which, left uncorrected, will lead to “restructuring”, possibly of the Soviet kind. Here’s how it breaks down:

Bahrain $84
Kuwait $34
Oman $78
Qatar $24
Saudi Arabia $54
United Arab Emirates $24
Algeria $60
Azerbaijan $35
Iran $90
Iraq $94
Venezuela $95
Russia $70
Kazakhstan $67
Libya $53

As of the date of this posting, the price of a barrel of crude is hovering at $61 a barrel. It’s pretty obvious why Venezuela’s National guard is sitting on expropriated assets right now. Highlighted for emphasis is Saudi Arabia, who would need to feel the pinch substantially to make any dent, Iraq, who is just plain high, and the UAE, who has the lowest breakeven point.

Ideally, Our goal should be to invest in renewable energy to easily hold the Iraq price, push down below the Saudi price, and eventually hit the UAE price. Maybe I’m naive here, but I figure such a change will force these countries leaders to invest in people to grow GDP rather than drilling equipment. It’ll also make the planet more comfortable for us to live in as we use more solar, wind, and geothermal. And it will ensure more military veterans will be around to commemorate memorial days to come.

More info:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/116369-behind-the-numbers-problems-loom-for-opec

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27355967

President Obama unveiled his vision to upgrade “the nation’s transportation system” earlier this month, pledging a long-term commitment at the federal and state levels to build a comprehensive high-speed intercity passenger rail network connecting the nation. It’s a National Highway act for an abandoned rail system which could (if taken seriously that is) provide an alternative to domestic airplane travel. A lower energy, lower cost alternative.

Under the American Recovery and Investment Act, high-speed rail would receive an initial investment of $8 billion, plus a requested $1 billion a year for five years in the federal budget. Here’s the Federal Railroad Administration spokesmouth’s statement:

“High-speed rail (HSR) is a family of transportation options that address longer-distance passenger transport needs in heavily populated corridors. Implementing HSR will promote economic expansion (including new manufacturing jobs), create new choices for travelers in addition to flying or driving, reduce national dependence on oil, and foster urban and rural livable communities. With the successful completion of the original phases of the Northeast Corridor (NEC) Transportation Project offering Amtrak’s 150 mph train service, known as “Acela,” between Washington, New York, and Boston, efforts have expanded beyond the NEC. A number of high-speed rail corridors are being planned by States that range from upgrades to existing rail lines to entirely new rail lines exclusively devoted to 150 to 250 mph trains.”

Envisioning 1960’s Technology

If you’ve traveled from Boston to Washington D.C. on America’s Acela Express, you know how far we need to go to make high speed rail a viable long distance alternative (not just a low budget alternative). The Acela staff provide great service, but a sustained speed of 138kph/86mph isn’t going to compete effectively with an average commercial passenger airplane speed of 800 kph/500 mph.  It’s not just Acela that’s slow. Japan’s Shinkansen high speed train network shuttles locals at 210kph/130mph, which is great only if you live on a geographically small island nation.  It’s also worth mentioning the Shinkansen opened its doors in 1964.

Then in 2003 Shanghai Maglev Train opened up for business, covering the Longyan-Pudong corridor in China, which moved the speed standard forward to a sustained 431 kph/268mph. I’ve been on it, and the experience rocks.

Photo Coutesy of Jian Shuo Wang

Shanghai Maglev Train leaving the Longyan Station. Photo Coutesy of Jian Shuo Wang

The SMT is still the only commercial Maglev train in existence, but there are others in the works. California has been on the forefront of voter ballot measures which have proposed building a high speed rail service from the San Francisco bay area to Los Angeles, and even has this really cool trip calculator on their site. Unfortunately, the project aims to build maglevs traveling at underwhelming sustained speed of 350/220.

Aim for Airspeed California

So maglev trains traveling in a frictionless, motionless tube seems to provide the best prospects for energy efficient, fast domestic travel, but how fast can they really go? Current maglev trains in use have been clocked at 501kph/311 mph in Shanghai. But that’s not the end of the story: while California dabbles in meeting last century’s speed records, the Japanese are busy designing Shinkansen’s successor, which aims for sustained speeds of 581kph/361mph. But we don’t need to go overseas to find maglev trains traveling at cutting edge speeds. San Diego-based General Atomics is testing designs which achieve the same speeds, and is hoping to tap into American Recovery and Investment Act funding.

As stated at the beginning of this blog post, the American Recovery and Investment Act provides 13 billion over 5 years for high speed rail. That’s alot of money, and it would be nice to buy an alternative to airports with all that cash. But that will only happen if California and other funded states set their sights high, rather than at easily achievable targets. It’s likely that low expectations could ironically undermine progress. Taxpayers who see little improvement for a generous outpouring of funds could vote to pull the plug on much needed investment in the future.

Edit: Noticed Christopher Beam wrote a similarly stinging piece, although he gives my home state credit more credit than I for leading the feds and other states. Rightly so – a hat tip to you sir.

Most people driving into San Jose, CA will quickly notice the quixotic mix of the hotel De Anza, a throwback to art deco style architecture, and the many new glass-and-steel condo towers beckoning white collar 30 somethings to migrate back into the city center.  To be sure, this city draws a striking contrast between the city streets around the gleaming center of the city, and the dilapidated wooden structure homes on the other side of the 280 freeway dressed up in all manner of baby blues and yellow paint jobs. Old and new San Jose, they call it.  I live about 5 minutes from city center in San Jose, and from time to time drive past the building-turned-artwork city hall on the way to something or another. The last few times I drove past city hall, I noticed an approximately 2-3 foot black machine right across city hall on the curbside – about the half size of a mailbox. Now what seemed at the time like a high tech parking meter may in fact transform old San Jose yet again – only this time it’ll be the roads which change.

It turns out the curbside machine was one of four installed by Coulomb Technologies —three in a parking garage on 4th Street and one curbside across from city hall. The purpose of the device is to provide drivers with the ability to charge up electric and electric-hybrid vehicles. Here’s how it works: a driver can subscribes to the company’s ChargePoint Network, and receives a smart card that allows he or she to fuel up at any station. A driver can pay for 10 sessions a month for $15 or all the way up to unlimited monthly access for $50. The charging station will work for fully electric vehicles as well as plug-in hybrids. Chargepoint subscribers can visit the network’s web site to view a Google maps feed of available (or occupied) stations.

Let that sink in a moment – an electric or hybrid electric driver using this network can effectively place a ceiling on his or her transit fuel costs while driving “green”.

But charging stations are the visible tip of a larger iceberg. To enable a consumer level cap on transit costs in this fashion, we would need a standardized grid of services and standards – one which would allow drivers to plug in whether they are in San Jose or anywhere else in North America. And that requires what I like to call the grid above the grid. It’s an idea stemming from the way the internet works, simply applied to energy. Think about all the things that have to work in concert ot allow you to read this blog post : An ethernet cable (or wifi) is used to connect your computer to your router at home or in the office. That’s a physical layer standard. Next you need an Internet address, or IP, which works on top of the physical standard.  This blog has an IP address, and so does your computer – its how traffic gets to and from you on the internet. Next, you have to have a transport standard from your browser to the blog server to allow to you request the blog post text. That’s a standard too which sits above the IP address standard (the “TCP” in “TCP/IP”). Finally you have the application layer standard which sits atop the transport layer. That’s the HTML standard which all web pages adhere to, allowing your browser to work all over the internet. The point here is that to make it all work, it’s important to compartmentalize the system into different layers of a “stack model”, with each standard layer sits on top of one another. The same stack model can be helpful in identifying steps needed to fuel transportation in a post-petrol world.

Here’s one (admittedly simple) Grid Within the Grid model:

ConnectorRefuelTransmissionProduction

The assumption here is, like the internet, there’s a grid built on the back of another to make post-petrol driving convenient. In turn, the four pieces are as follows:

The Connector (or “plug”) Layer

The first layer in the grid would a standard plug which connects to any charging station (home or commercial), and fits any electric or hybrid-electric vehicle. The good news is we already have one.  The three-point, 400-volt plug, which will allow electric cars to be recharged anywhere in a matter of minutes, is set to be unveiled Monday at the world’s biggest industrial technology fair in Hanover, northern Germany. According to a press release from German energy company RWE,  sa press release from German energy company RWE, automotive and energy companies have reached an agreement for a standardized plug electric and electric-hybrids. Some of the automakers include in that agreement are Volkswagen, BMW, Ford, General Motors, Fiat, Toyota and Mitsubishi.

The Refuel Layer

The next part of that standards stack is the charging stations on the roadsides, or what I call the charge station layer. It’s also problem for which appropriate tools have been developed and deployed for determining where Starbucks franchises will be located to tap demand, for instance. Same thinking applies to charging stations, and making sure those stations all support the lower level standard (use the same plug). Of course there’s also the matter of making sure Chargepoint users are authenticated. Energy credits provided to Chargepoint users would need to be billed, which requires set up of a monetization grid as well. To make such a system convenient, drivers would need to be able to pay a number of different ways: credit cards, subscription, stored value cards, and possibly other exotic methods such as bill to a phone (the way some vending machines work in Japan). Layer on top that a number of different providers would jump on board to provide charging stations the same way ExxonMobile, Shell, Chevron, etc all lined up to provide drivers with fuel for conventional vehicles. The trick is getting the most ubiquitous charge network providers to join open payment interoperability standards. This too is a problem which has been solved in the past – by banks who have coordinated to provide ubiquitous use of Visa and Mastercards, regardless of what bank a business accepting credit cards is using, or whether that business is a brick-and-mortar business or a web business.

The Energy Transmission Layer

There’s little point to switching to electric or electric-hybrids if we keep generating electricity through fossil fuels – whether you’re concerned about the impact of greenhouse gases on the environment, domestic job creation, or the America’s political-economic entanglements driven by dependence on petro-dictatorships for fuel. It’s the same problem. The U.S. has the natural resources, the technology and the capital to initiate a shift to renewable energy. Missing is a high-voltage and fault-tolerant transmission backbone to make that future a reality. The issue is that the prime areas for renewable energy production are in places where we don’t have robust existing transmission infrastructure.  Since there is a geographic gap between production and demand, electric companies have understandably built coal, nuclear, natural gas and oil-fired generators closer to customers.

Matthew Wald of Scientific American provides depths around the issue by writing that “North America is actually covered by four regional grids (three of which serve the U.S.). The largest is the Eastern Interconnection, an extensive complex of transmission lines that stretches from Halifax to New Orleans, with substations that step down the high-voltage electricity to lower levels so that it can be distributed locally along smaller wires. West of the Rockies is the Western Interconnection, from British Columbia to San Diego and a small slice of Mexico. Texas, in an echo of its history as an independent republic, comprises its own grid, now called the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. And Quebec, with its separatist undercurrent, also has its own grid. The high-voltage transmission systems in the four regions comprise about 200,000 miles of power lines, divided among a staggering 500 owners, that carry current from more than 10,000 power plants run by about 6,000 investor-owned utilities, public power systems and co-ops.”

Power traveling through a feudal mess of jurisdictions is only one problem. We also lose power the longer we transmit it, and the older the energy grid is the less efficient it operates. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), seventy percent of the existing high-­voltage system is consequently 25 years old or more. Hence the DOE’s current goal of attaining 20 percent of U.S. electricity from wind by 2030 includes a plan for a national, high-voltage transmission backbone. The 22,000-mile system is the energy equivalent of the interstate highway act for a post-carbon transportation economy. Today’s transmission system usually operates at no higher than 345 kilovolts, but the proposed national energy backbone  would operate at an extreme high-voltage rating: 765 kilovolts. The bump in power would reduce typical system losses of 3 to 8 percent to around 1 percent and provide routing around. It also wouldn’t hurt to have a smart grid which routes around failure between any two lines, in case of routine failure or in the case of an electro magnetic disruption. Incidentally, the U.S. military is currently studying the effects of a weaponized electro magnetic disruption device, which could be used to knock out power to affected areas. Enhanced security is a nice benefit to revamping the grid too.

The Production Layer

As the self-explanatory name implies, the production layer involves what happens inside a power plant – be that power plant conventional, or renewable. To the extent that the other three layers are properly sorted out as above, a centralized conversion from fossil fuels to renewables at the power plant level would have the effect of “greening” transportation around the country.

The Big Picture

This is one picture of what we can create , and none of this is new. Making the kinds of changes we’ll need to make one way or another is a matter of applying internet design principles, business community buy-in, public support, and exercise of a new national highway act focused on energy.  The key to this is a concerted effort – our national highway system was not constructed individually by states and glued together afterwards. So it is with the need for a national transportation energy grid. The best part is we will probably create lots of jobs while we’re at it.

It was clear early on at the San Francisco Game Developer’s Conference that the vibe was a bit different than previous conferences. Some of the events feel a bit more personal, as travel budgets have been cut. Regardless one announcement drew a good amount of buzz: the launch of Onlive, a subscriptions revenue alternative to buying or renting video games.  Bigger picture here – what’s most interesting about the announcement is the gaming industry as a whole embracing an all-you-can-eat model for content, which the recording industry has long fought (to their deteriment, many would say).  The idea seems to be gaining traction to combat both piracy as well as the margin erosion of secondary market sales.

And a few (admittedly grainy) iphone photos of the conference while I’m at it. Enjoy:

Global Agenda